The Labour Vacuum and Burnham’s Timely Re-Emergence
I was interested to read an article in The Guardian today 23/11/25 (link below) reporting the results of a poll of Labour members on who they would prefer to replace Keir Starmer, something that is beginning to look more like an inevitability than a mere possibility. Ever since Labour conference, when Andy Burnham made it abundantly clear that he wanted the top job, only to be seen off by Starmer who, to his credit, delivered a strong attack on Farage the general view became that Burnham’s bid to replace him had failed. Full stop.
This was never a view I shared. It reflects the modern habit of assuming that if something doesn’t happen immediately, it won’t happen at all. In reality, Burnham’s timing was good. Starmer himself did something similar to Corbyn a couple of years before becoming leader, signalling his intentions early and waiting for the moment.
Meanwhile, the Conservative Party has been facing its own internal rumblings. Dissatisfaction with Kemi Badenoch’s performance was growing, and Robert Jenrick, the supposed heir apparent, was making his ambitions increasingly clear ahead of their conference.
The difference between Burnham and Jenrick is simple: experience. Burnham has run Manchester with competence and maintained broad popularity. Jenrick, on the other hand, has done little beyond pitching to the right in the hope of positioning himself as a sort of de facto Farage stand in. Burnham looks like a credible future Labour leader and Prime Minister; Jenrick looks like a populist with no meaningful track record.
Starmer’s Struggles, Badenoch’s Adjustment, and the Clock Ticking to May
Besides, since the Conservative Party Conference, Kemi Badenoch has noticeably improved and begun to get a grip on the leadership role. She has introduced a popular stamp duty proposal, improved her performances at PMQs, and, only last week, offered conditional support for Labour’s new immigration policy. However backhanded, it signalled something important she is adapting, learning, and growing into the job. This is something Keir Starmer has not yet managed to do. Voters are tiredof thebyah boo sucks of politics and see an offer of minor collaboration shows someone seeing and seizing the bigger picture.
Starmer’s time in government has been marked by repeated errors. Labour entered power by default and arrived without policies, without a defined programme, and without a coherent agenda. They have been forced to construct one on the hoof while managing what even right wing commentators accede to as a dire economic inheritance from the Conservatives. Rather than clarifying their position, Labour has often deepened the confusion.
Rachel Reeves has not helped. At a moment when the country likely needs both tax rises and spending cuts to stimulate growth, she has opted for piecemeal adjustments, adding and removing minor revenue measures that do little to shift the national accounts. When we need vision, she is coming up with micro management, you won’t turn a massive economy around that way.
At the same time, Starmer’s government has achieved some genuinely positive outcomes, yet failed almost entirely to communicate them. Much of this dysfunction appears to stem from the Number 10 operation, which Ed Balls described as “juvenile.”
In my view, Starmer has until the May elections to correct course: to stabilise No. 10, to end the internal briefings and infighting, and to present a national agenda that people can understand and support. Voters will accept higher taxes if the plan is credible, clear, and aimed at rebuilding a country badly in need of renewal.
If he cannot do this, then Burnham must step in.
This isn’t just about today’s opinion poll or Clive Lewis offering to vacate his seat so Burnham can enter Parliament. It’s about Burnham’s combination of charisma, competence, executive and government experience and presentation, qualities Starmer does not possess. What Starmer does have is the makings of an excellent Foreign Secretary. Even right leaning commentators acknowledge he has exceeded expectations on the international stage.
My preferred outcome would be Burnham as Leader and Prime Minister, Starmer as a substantial Foreign Secretary, and a new face at the Treasury to replace Rachel Reeves.
Far from Burnham’s hopes being over, I believe his real campaign began at Labour conference. Many commentators dismissed him immediately. I did not. Having followed politics all my life, I am convinced that Burnham has the qualities needed for leadership and that he will become the next leader of the Labour Party and PM. There are many rivers to cross for Burnham, but my belief is momentum and a now enormous desire to see off Starmer, who by the way I have a lot of time for, will see him shortly as PM and someone to see off the strong challenge of Reform and the Greens.
As for the Conservatives, if they are wise, they will keep Badenoch, provided she shifts her attention from chasing Reform leaning voters to reclaiming the centre ground where elections are won.
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