by Chris Harris
There is something slightly different about Nigel Farage at the moment. For years, whatever you thought of him, he possessed an extraordinary political instinct and ability to turn almost any controversy to his advantage. Scandal, outrage, resignation, comeback. It was all fuel. But the £5 million affair feels different.
The questions surrounding the undeclared £5 million gift from Christopher Harborne have not disappeared as he had clearly planned by the Clacton debacle, the only thing clear about that is that those instincts at the moment are on the wain. Farage has looked unusually rattled by them. More importantly, it risks damaging the thing that has always mattered most to him: the Farage brand.
Reform remains around 25 per cent in the polls, which is obviously substantial but a figure with a rapidly downward trajectory. Surely 25 per cent isn’t really the interesting number anymore. The interesting people are the additional 10 or 15 per cent Reform would somehow need to persuade if it genuinely believes it can become the dominant force in British politics.
Those people aren’t necessarily looking for somebody to shout even louder about immigration. Many would have to be persuaded that Reform is actually capable of governing the country. Questions about £5 million, changing explanations and parliamentary investigations aren’t exactly ideal recruitment material.
Who Starts Looking at His Chair and How Far Right Do They Want to Go?
I’m not suggesting there is some secret committee plotting to overthrow Farage. There is no evidence of that. But politics rarely works like that anyway. When a leader starts looking vulnerable, everybody around them suddenly becomes more interesting. Statements become auditions and interviews become opportunities.
Robert Jenrick is the obvious one to watch. His prospects of eventually leading the Conservatives had become increasingly remote and Reform offered another route. That was a perfectly rational political decision. But it seems unlikely that an ambitious politician changes parties because his lifetime ambition is to become somebody else’s Treasury spokesman.
Jenrick could theoretically offer a more conventional version of Reform, perhaps appealing to voters who like some of its policies but dislike the circus surrounding them. The problem is that he possesses nothing approaching Farage’s charisma or political instincts. He might eventually become leader. Making a success of it would be another matter entirely.
Then there is Richard Tice, who has certainly been making himself difficult to ignore. Her makes me laugh, but that is because he is Trumpian style dim-witted. His recent suggestion that we might essentially enjoy warmer weather rather than obsess about climate change was classic Tice. Perhaps it was simply conviction, but it is an interesting way of appealing to the millions of additional moderate voters Reform supposedly needs.
The Strange Case for Keeping Farage
Which leaves me making an argument I never expected to make. I have absolutely no sympathy with Reform and have never believed they have a realistic chance of winning the next general election. But if I were a Reform member, I would be extremely careful what I wished for.
Because, at the moment, these three guys are clearly poking their heads above the parapet, sensing Farage is weak at the moment and would always deny it, but are thinking maybe not in terms of a coup but the fact Farage looks thoroughly hacked off with the whole thing and I am one of the few people who question whether or not Reform is all about narcissism and performance and the actually running the county is not something he is actually that keen on.
Farage’s star may be falling. The £5 million controversy could further damage him. His personal ratings aren’t particularly impressive, and his old trick of emerging stronger from every controversy doesn’t seem to be working quite as reliably.
But remove Farage and what exactly are you left with? Jenrick, the only one of the three who would not run Reform into the ground, but someone without Farage’s charisma. Might as well vote Conservative, ironically. Tice, clearly without Farage’s political instincts. Yusuf is apparently testing how far the rhetoric can be pushed before even Farage tells him to stop, as the whole country joins me, thinking he is just an intelligent tosser.
Farage’s great political skill has never really been administration or conventional leadership. It has been understanding an audience. He knows when to provoke, when to retreat and, crucially, how far he can push an argument without frightening away the people he wants to attract next. Whether this is running out of line is up for debate, but it is a skill set none of his potential replacements possesses.
None of the options would have a chance in hell of producing a stronger Reform Party. Indeed, it would become much weaker. But my instinct is these three guys are circling like vultures, the glittering prize seemingly palpable, seemingly blissfully unaware that if any three of them took over the Reform Party, it would no longer be a political force.
#Andy Burnham #Conservative Party #Labour Party #Reform Party #Politics
